I vividly remember buying my first pair of Jordans. Back then, my parents found my interest in sneakers questionable and did not understand why I "wasted my money" on a pair of two-sizes-too-big East Coast 20s (because they were the least expensive size on eBay, duh!) when I had perfectly wearable Merrells at home. After they arrived, I walked through school in my size 12 Jays and four pair of socks to try and make them fit. My classmates made fun of me mercilessly, which I likely deserved considering the extra length in the toe made it look like I was wearing clown shoes. But even years later, once I had sneakers that actually fit, the teasing didn't cease. Kids didn't understand my love of sneakers, and my passion contributed to me being somewhat of a pariah. The loves of my life. Still have 'em, too. Flash forward to the present and sneaker culture is more popular than ever. The sneaker resale market generated $2 billion in 2019, and the sneaker industry as a whole was evaluated to be worth $78 billion in 2021 - over double what it was just nine years ago. From Jason Markk shoe cleaning products to insurance policies specifically for sneakers, there are now countless businesses who make their money off of sneakers' rise in popularity. And those kids who used to make fun of me for my sneakers back in middle school, high school, and college? Many of them are now texting me on release day, hoping I've got a special website or plug that can get them the latest Jordan 1s or Dunk collaboration (spoiler, I don't). Sneaker culture's abrupt ascendence raises questions about whether the industry will continue to grow. Will newer sneakerheads stick around after the hype of their first purchase inevitably fades? Is there a place for this many casual sneakerheads amongst those of us who have lived and breathed this hobby for decades? If so, will bots and resellers stop the two groups from peacefully coexisting? Below I discuss whether sneaker culture is more likely to continue expanding exponentially, or sharply contract like so many fads before it. Is the rise in sneaker culture a trend, or are we merely witnessing the tip of the iceberg? Why the Sneaker Scene Went from Underground to UbiquitousLike every trend, the rise in popularity of sneaker culture is attributable to a confluence of factors. 1. Instant-gram The advent of social media brought with it insight into how the other half lives. The Average Joe can now follow with frightening compulsion the lives of their favorite celebrities and influencers. This, of course, includes the clothes and shoes those celebrities are wearing. If Travis Scott decides he likes Dunks, the 44.1 million people who follow him instantaneously know about it. People are impressionable and are always looking for ways to simultaneously fit in and stand out. Social media provides them with immediate examples of how they can do so and right now, social media tells them they can do so by wearing sneakers. 2. StockAccess People not only have instant access to what sneakers their style muses are wearing, but they now have instant access to purchase them as well. Back in my day (I know, I know), sneakerheads spent months, sometimes years, scouring eBay, Facebook marketplace, and local sneaker shows for grails in your size and price range. It was a hobby that required copious amounts of research and persistence. For example, I initially wanted the Burgundy 5s in 2006 and ultimately purchased them in 2014. That was a long search! Online sneaker marketplaces like StockX, Goat, and Tradeblock have all but eliminated the hunt. Almost every shoe one could want is available in every size on a single website. If you see a pair of sneakers you like, it has never been easier to find and buy them than it is now. 3. The Rise of Casual Attire Years ago, my father likes to remind me, you couldn't get into a nice restaurant without wearing a sport coat. Despite the best efforts of Boyz II Men, most people weren't wearing sneakers with formalwear when they went out. Now, women wear spandex and men wear t-shirts to Morton's without a second thought. With people dressing casually more frequently, they have more places to wear sneakers than ever before. Why the Sneaker Scene Is a Bubble Waiting to BurstSeveral uncertainties in the market suggest we may be living at the peak of sneakers' popularity. 1. Will the Newbies Stick Around? I've been collecting sneakers for over fifteen years. Though I wish I could buy virtually every pair I see, I try and limit myself to five or ten pair per year to keep my closet from entering a state of total disarray. When considering the increase in my income over the last decade and a half, my adjusted demand for sneakers has actually decreased. Based on conversations I have had with other longtime collectors, my hunch is that most old heads are in a similar situation - they aren't buying more sneakers than they were ten years ago. If people like me haven't increased their demand since 2012, but the sneaker industry is now twice as valuable, where is all this growth coming from? The obvious answer is that people who did not previously spend money on sneakers, like the people who used to make fun of me back in school, have entered the market. These casuals now make up an enormous portion of the sneaker scene, but unlike the multi-decade sneaker addicts, these people aren't guaranteed to stay in the culture for years to come. Many of these new collectors are young kids, and the jury remains out on whether their interest stems from engaging with something popular or a genuine love for shoes. If the newbies don't stick around, the sneaker scene could quickly return to its 2012 level of value. 2. The Dramatic Increase in Releases Could Reduce Resale Values By my and Sneaker Files's count, Jordan Brand released 24 pairs of retros in 2009 (and most of these were Jordan 1 mids, lows, and highs with straps). By contrast, Jordan Brand released 28 pairs of retros in just the first four months of 2021, according to SBD. The limited number of releases in years passed justified the increased prices on the resale market. If you were a fan of Jordan 3s, 8s, 16s, or a number of other models, 2009 just wasn't your year. You would have to wait to see if JB would release any of your favorite shoes in 2010. Because of this, it was special when a new pair came out. Other brands have increased their number of releases per year as well, further flooding the market. With so many options available, it is possible people will stop paying the resale tax when they miss a release and wait for an opportunity to pay retail for something comparable in silhouette or color. If people stop paying resale prices at the rate they are now, individuals interested in sneakers exclusively for their monetary potential will exit the culture. Sad to say, this is likely a large percentage of people within the sneaker scene. If constant releases cause resale values to plummet, the number of people in the sneaker scene would immediately contract. Nike Dunk High "Spartan Green," released September 17, 2020; Nike Dunk Low "Michigan State," released June 2, 2021; Nike Dunk Low "Vintage Green," releasing 2022. 3. There's Always Something Up Next Whether it be Cabbage Patch Kids in the 1980s, CDs in the 1990s, or Pokémon cards in the 2000s, people love finding something new to collect. Each collectible inevitably loses its appeal once the masses find something else to collect or a new generation becomes the dominant market force. For the reasons listed in the section above, sneakers may just be the collectible of our age - widely popular in 2022, collecting dust in the basement in 2026. Popular trends are fickle and people may choose to spend their disposable income elsewhere once the wind changes direction. Who knows, if Rick Ross gained notoriety in 2016 instead of 2006, maybe the sunglass scene would be growing more than the sneaker scene is. If a new product comes along that grab's people's attention and wallets, the number of sneaker purchasers will dwindle. 4. Will the Influx of Casual Buyers Discourage the Old Heads from Sticking with It? Nah. It sucks to lose every raffle. But nah. Why the Sneaker Scene Will Continue to Grow in PopularityThe value of the sneaker industry has been on a steady incline for over a decade. Here are several reasons why it may not slow down any time soon. 1. Factors Contributing to Growth Aren't Going Away Despite rumblings and documentaries about its deleterious effects, social media is more popular than ever. It is unlikely Instagram and other platforms that have contributed to sneaker culture's rise are going anywhere soon. What is more likely is that we see innovations in social media platforms to make them even more efficient at keeping our attention. Improvements in social media will bring with it better ways to share - and buy - sneakers. Similarly, no indication exists that society will return to demanding formalwear as it did in decades passed. For example, I wear sneakers into my law office every day and I am among the most formally dressed (several of my coworkers wear sweatpants to the office). Especially considering the way the pandemic has transformed what clothes and behaviors are acceptable in a "professional" setting, individuals have unprecedented freedom and occasion to express themselves through their footwear. Without this cultural shift, people like me would have been effectively pushed out of the sneaker market by our new, more professional jobs. Sure, I would still love sneakers; but would it make sense to buy 10 pair per year when I spend 5/7ths of my days wearing loafers? Instead, I only needed to trade my Peacock Dunks for some New Balances to come across as formal enough for my office. If people don't age out of being able to wear sneakers, the scene will continue to gain more enthusiasts than it loses. 2. Sneakers Don't Discriminate: There Is a Pair For Everyone A vast majority of my friends are not into sneakers. Nonetheless, I always send them sneakers that intersect with their interests. Recently, one of my non-sneakerhead friends nearly bought the entire Adidas x The Simpsons line. Whether you are interested in cartoons, environmental sustainability, or anything in between, there is a sneaker or collaboration that will bring you into the fold. 3. Supply-Side Newbies Its not just the demand-side that is witnessing an influx of market entrants. New brands like Hoka, Sia Collective, On, and many others are pushing the envelope in both style and performance. Old favorites are staying relevant by incorporating new technology, and by bringing cultural trends outside of the sneaker market to people's feet. Most notably, the concerted push amongst major brands to incorporate sustainable materials into their sneakers saw significant demand in 2021, and will only improve moving forward (see Adidas' collaboration with Parley and their mushroom-leather Stan Smiths). 4. Everyone Has to Wear Shoes Anyway People are realizing their shoes can bring them joy and connect them to a larger culture. After several seriously depressing and antisocial years, people may be willing to spend more for those qualities. Conclusion: The Sneaker Scene Will Decrease in PopularityI believe that the increase in sneakers’ popularity is directly tied to the post-retail monetization of the culture. Eventually, people will stop paying dramatic increases in price on the resale market and just wait for brands to release a similar pair in six months to a year. Without the financial incentive to remain, resellers will migrate to a new commodity, thereby dramatically decreasing the demand within (and ultimately the value of) the sneaker market.
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About the AuthorKevin Witenoff has been collecting sneakers since 2004. He is currently based out of Detroit, Michigan, USA and is down to a collection of roughly 60 pairs. He wears size 10.5. |